Reporter’s Notebook: All eyes on Tennessee special election as Trump referendum

We’ll know Wednesday morning if A.J Special elections in Tennessee It’s really a referendum on country music, pedal bars, and singles.

Or we can infer deeper political meaning from the results of the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.

Democrat Aftin Behn is trying to tip the scales in her party’s favor in a district that President Donald Trump won by about 20 points, and former Rep. Mark Green, Republican of Tennessee, won by a similar percentage last fall.

Behn faces off against GOPer Matt Van Epps. It’s a Al-Jumhuriyya neighborhood. But political observers are watching the race to gauge potential weakness for Trump, weakness in Trump’s coalition, problems with the GOP brand, or early signs of a possible blue wave in the 2026 midterms.

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Republican candidate Matt Van Eps, left, and Democratic candidate Aftin Behn face a special election on December 2, 2025, to fill a vacant GOP-controlled U.S. House seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. (AP photo; AP photo)

It was Behn who declared that she detested Nashville several years ago. “I hate singles, I hate pedal bars, I hate country music. I hate all the things that make Nashville seem like an IT city,” Behn complained.

All Behn had left in her animosity toward Music City was to vilify The Grand Ole Opry, hot chickens, and Goo Goo groups. But if voters get Behn wrong on Tuesday, Republicans will face a different kind of group. Behn’s win could signal big problems for Republicans and President Trump as the midterm elections approach.

Behn is described as the “AOC of Tennessee,” referring to the progressive lawmaker. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezD.N.Y. Republicans were sure to bounce that against Behn, suggesting she is out of tune with the district, leans too far to the left, and is closer to the liberal values ​​of New York or Los Angeles than Nashville. Republicans think Behn doesn’t fit in Nashville. Kind of like Bad Bunny performing at the Ryman Auditorium.

“It shouldn’t be this close, but it is,” Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., said on Fox.

So Republicans are pouring money into protecting the seat. Democrats are pumping money to steal the seat. If Democrats pull off this upset, the party should uproot the goal posts at First Bank Stadium in downtown Nashville and throw them into the Cumberland River. That’s what Vanderbilt fans did last year when the Commodores upset No. 1 seed Alabama.

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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez listens to witness testimony during a House hearing with mayors of sanctuary cities on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 5, 2025. (AP Photo)

Let’s explore what a Behn win might mean for Republicans. This may indicate that voters are fed up with Trump. Or that the GOP brand is toxic. Or perhaps this is a continuation of a trend Democrats have enjoyed this fall: wins for New Jersey Governor-elect Mickey Sherrill and Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger.

But there is a downside for Democrats. Yes. They may flip the seat. But a win may also show that the party is leaning more towards the left. It would be hard to argue with success if Behn wins, regardless of her progressive streak. But this might give other liberals ideas they could win in other red or purple districts. That could work against Democrats — especially since every Republican, except President Trump, has highlighted the leftist policies of New York Mayor-elect Zahran Mamdani.

Democrats may need to field more centrist candidates in purple districts to regain control of the House. Behn’s win could open the floodgates to a host of progressive candidates in competitive House districts across the country. Behn’s message — or Ocasio-Cortez’s or Mamdani’s — won’t work in most of the places Democrats need to succeed in taking control of the House.

But what if Republicans keep the seat and Van Epps wins?

Maybe it depends on the amount.

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Democrats scored victories across the country in November 2025, with centrist and left-wing candidates taking decisive positions. (Michael Nagel/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Adam Gray/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Yes, there were five special elections in 2017 — the first year Trump was originally in office — that Democrats made competitive. They were all too close. but Democrats He didn’t win any of them. However, astute political observers have pointed out the unpopularity of the president and the Republican Party’s agenda. Democrats won 40 seats and took control of the House of Representatives in the 2017 midterm elections.

So, even if Van Epps wins, check the margin. And if Behn wins, see if Republicans will downplay it because it was a special election and traditional voters didn’t go to the special election. Especially those sandwiched between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

If Republicans hold this seat, the GOP will argue that this was a repudiation of someone as left-wing as Behn and someone who was out of line. They’ll also suggest it’s a GOP seat and Republicans should win anyway. This is what happened earlier this year when there was panic ahead of two special elections in Florida. But Florida Republican Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won in March.

Here is another factor that deserves attention: the message that media professionals and political observers extract from the election results. Ultimately, special elections are always special. It is natural for analysts and journalists to search for certain meanings or features in these competitions. This was the case with off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City. Sometimes these notes are spot on. Other times, it means nothing. However, there is a tendency to exaggerate the results of these competitions. They are moments in time. Kind of like listening to a few bars of the song. It probably tells you a lot about the song. Maybe not.

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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after speaking to troops via video from his Mar-a-Lago home on Thanksgiving, November 27, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. (Alex Brandon/AP Photo)

House Republicans may be dismayed if Behn prevails. There is a lot of grumbling among Republicans. Some are frustrated with the way their leadership has handled the government shutdown. Others could follow the lead of Greene and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and exit early.

This is a fragile time for House Republicans. That’s one reason why flipping this seat means a little more.

However, it is rare for seats to flip in special House elections. Former Rep. Don Cazaio, D-Los Angeles, won a special election in a red district in Louisiana in 2008 after former Rep. Richard Baker, R-Los Angeles, resigned. But current Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-Los Angeles, then won that seat in the general election and served in the House before moving to the Senate.

Former Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, flipped the seat held by former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, in 2022. But she lost re-election that fall.

Former Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., won a special election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., resigned after just months in office. Garcia held the seat until Rep. George Whitesides, D-Calif., defeated him a year ago.

Former Rep. Charles Dew, R-Hawaii, won a special election in Hawaii in 2010 against two Democrats – former Rep. Collin Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii. But Democrats regained the seat in 2012.

Former Rep. Mary Peltula, D-Alaska, won a special election in 2022 to flip Alaska area in general From red to blue after the death of the late Rep. Don Young, Republican of Alaska. Young held the seat for nearly 50 years. But Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, defeated Peltola last year.

In short, even if someone flips their seat, it is rare for them to keep the seat for a long time. Often, only through the next regular election.

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So, a word of caution as you evaluate the election results on Tuesday evening. If Republicans hold this seat, that might be expected. If Democrats flip their seat, some will declare this to be the second coming of the Music City miracle.

But honestly, that’s probably not the case.