Europe scrambles for US gas after dismissing Trump’s earlier warnings

when Donald Trump Russia warned European leaders years ago that their reliance on Russian gas would make them “hostage of Moscow,” and the statement was met with skepticism — and even laughter.

Three years into his second term, these same leaders are now scrambling to secure long-term contracts for American liquefied natural gas, at a time when Russia’s once-dominant grip on Europe’s energy market is disintegrating, just as Trump predicted.

Russia’s decision to cut off gas supplies in 2022 – in an attempt to break Western unity and pressure Europe to abandon Ukraine – has had the opposite effect. Its share of EU gas imports fell from 45% in 2021 to less than 10% today. American gas now constitutes approximately 57% of Europe’s total imports, compared to about a third before the war.

This cut has accelerated the historic reorganization of global energy LNG producers in the United States Rushing to fill the void. This shift has not only weakened one of Vladimir Putin’s most powerful geopolitical weapons, but also fueled a US export boom that binds Europe to Washington more tightly than at any time since the Cold War.

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New corridors linking LNG terminals in Poland, Greece and Croatia direct American and Qatari gas deep into the continent. (Philip Klimaszewski/Reuters)

This shift is most evident in Central and Eastern Europe, where countries that once relied on Russian pipelines are moving west. New corridors linking LNG terminals in Poland, Greece and Croatia direct American and Qatari gas deep into the continent. Countries such as Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia – long vulnerable to supply disruptions – are drafting contracts that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

“Central and Eastern Europe was the most vulnerable because it has historically been almost 100% dependent on Russian gas,” said Aura Sabados, senior energy analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Now we see companies in those markets securing US LNG through new routes, particularly through Poland and the southern corridors through Greece.”

In Athens last week, executives from major U.S. producers met with regional buyers from Greece, Poland and Ukraine to finalize new supply deals — the clearest sign yet that Europe’s energy axis has shifted. American gas now flows through the same infrastructure that once carried Russian fuel, and the geopolitical balance has shifted with it.

For the Kremlin, the death toll is rising. Energy exports once financed a third of Russia’s budget, but the loss of its most profitable markets has forced Moscow to sell oil and gas to China and India at deep discounts. Analysts say the country’s energy sector – once the backbone of its geopolitical power – has become a liability, exposing its dependence on fewer, less profitable buyers.

The United States has significantly increased LNG exports to Europe. (Anton Zubchevsky/iStock/Getty)

Greece has emerged as a major gateway for American gas. On November 7, Athens signed its first long-term deal with US export company Venture Global to import at least 700 million cubic meters per year starting in 2030. The 20-year agreement, led by Depa Commercial and Actor Group, could extend it to two billion cubic meters per year and allow Greece to re-export gas north through the Balkans towards Ukraine.

Poland also positions itself as a regional centre. Warsaw is negotiating to bring additional quantities of American liquefied natural gas – estimated at up to 5 billion cubic meters annually – for resale to Ukraine and Slovakia. Polish energy group ORLEN recently signed a contract with Ukrainian Naftogaz to deliver 140 million cubic meters of US gas via terminals in Svinoice and Klaipeda in Lithuania.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly relying on those methods to offset Russian losses and prepare for winter.

Europe’s pivot is likely to accelerate as the EU discusses a complete ban on Russian pipelines and LNG by 2028, Sabados said. “If this law is adopted and implemented — and if long-term contracts with American suppliers are secured — this will not be just a temporary shift,” she added. “It will be a structural reorganization.”

At the time of Trump’s first warnings, many European leaders rejected them. German officials have defended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, insisting that trade would keep Russia tied to the West. Now, those same governments are racing to secure US supplies as US LNG terminals along the Gulf Coast operate at record capacity.

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As the United States strengthens its role as the main supplier of gas to Europe, Russia’s grip on the continent’s energy market continues to weaken. “Russia is used to offering deep discounts to attract buyers, but with global production rising, it will have limited flexibility to compete,” Sabados said. “US LNG will become very competitive In Europe.”

When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their reliance on Russian gas would make them “hostage to Moscow,” the remark was met with skepticism — and even laughter. (Michael Nagel/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Trump administration moved quickly to take advantage of this shift. It lifted a temporary pause on LNG export approvals earlier this year, approved new production projects in Louisiana and Texas, and pushed for a US-EU energy framework under which European buyers pledged to buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of US energy over the coming decades. Officials point to a series of recent long-term contracts — including Venture Global’s deals with Italy and Germany over the summer, the Greece agreement announced last week, and the newly signed contract between Spanish companies Naturegy and Venture Global — as evidence that the “energy dominance” agenda is reshaping global trade flows.

The policy shift unleashed a wave of investment and underscored strong demand for US LNG, said Rob Jennings, vice president of natural gas markets at the American Petroleum Institute.

“Five facilities made their final investment decisions in the first nine months of this year, totaling about 50 million metric tons per year of new capacity — more than $50 billion in investment,” he told Fox News Digital. “It’s a really strong signal from the market.”

Export growth benefits both sides of the Atlantic, Jennings said.

“Since 2016, the cumulative impact of the US LNG industry on GDP has been about $400 billion, and could add another $1.3 trillion over the next 15 years,” he said. “At the same time, more than two-thirds of US LNG exports now go to Europe every day, replacing the gas they once bought from Russia.”

However, industry officials warn that regulatory differences could complicate trade in the future. Jennings pointed to two new European policies — EU methane regulation and corporate sustainability due diligence directives — that American producers say could impose foreign standards on American companies.

“These rules are actually Europe’s attempt to impose its own standards globally,” he said. He added: “We hope that this will be addressed as part of the trade agreement, because there is a risk that this will undermine Europe’s commitment to buy more American energy.”

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The process of reorganizing Europe is far from complete. Regulatory mismatches, high transport fees, and domestic politics continue to complicate the integration process across Central and Eastern Europe. But for now, the combination of abundant supply in the United States and new demand created by the shift from coal to gas has created what Sabados called “a good combination.”

“We’re entering a buyer’s market now,” she said. “There is abundant LNG supply in the US, and new pockets of demand are emerging in Eastern Europe as countries transition from coal to gas.”