Trump risks reigniting nuclear testing arms race with awful consequences

president Donald TrumpThe United States’ announcement of its intention to resume nuclear weapons testing for the first time in more than three decades came as a shock in both Washington and world capitals. He says the move is necessary to “keep up” with Russia and China, whose programs he claims are active, and to ensure America’s deterrent power remains credible. Trump declared that we would not be outdone, and ordered the Pentagon to “immediately” begin preparations.

This announcement has resonated around the world. For some, it signals renewed American power — evidence that Washington will no longer rely on self-imposed constraints while its adversaries modernize unhindered.

Rationale: Deterrence and parity

Trump’s logic is based on deterrence. If Russia or China conducts covert or low-force tests in violation of international standards, the United States, he says, should not appear constrained.

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This reasoning has merit in theory. However, in practice, there is no publicly verified evidence that Moscow or Beijing have undertaken large-scale actions Nuclear explosions In recent years. Both remain obligated, at least politically, to stop global testing.

President Trump said he has directed the War Department to begin testing nuclear weapons immediately on October 29, 2025. (Getty)

America, for its part, has maintained a strong and reliable deterrent through its stockpile management and oversight program — using advanced supercomputing, materials science, and subcritical testing to ensure the reliability of our arsenal without a single weapon detonating since 1992. However, Russia withdraws its ratification in 2023 The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty indicates a possible erosion of this restriction.

In short, our nuclear arsenal works. Our delivery systems are being updated.

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A Brief History: Lessons Written in Fire

To understand what is at stake, it helps to remember how we got here. The United States conducted its first nuclear test—the “Trinity” explosion—on July 16, 1945, in 1945. New Mexico. Over the next half century, America carried out more than a thousand nuclear explosions, first in the atmosphere, then underground and underwater. Each test expanded our understanding of the bomb’s enormous power and devastating potential, but the environmental and human toll, from the Pacific islands to Nevada, was staggering.

By the early 1960s, public outrage and the Cuban Missile Crisis had convinced world leaders that unrestricted testing endangered humanity itself. the Test Ban Treaty Limited In 1963, explosions in the atmosphere, outer space and underwater were banned. The last test for the United States occurred on September 23, 1992, after which Washington joined a global moratorium pending ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty — which some key nations, including our own, have yet to sign. However, the rule remained in place. For 33 years, no country has crossed this line except North Korea, and perhaps South Africa, in 1979.

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This freeze was one of the quiet triumphs of post-Cold War diplomacy: a restraint exercised not out of naiveté, but out of wisdom born of terror. It allowed countries to modernize defense while maintaining the taboo against nuclear explosions, the final frontier between deterrence and apocalypse.

Risks: moral, strategic and existential

Resuming testing now risks collapsing this fragile consensus. Once the United States breaks the silence, other countries will follow suit. Russia can justify its tests as mutual. China, which is already expanding its arsenal to 600 warheads, is expected to reach about 1,000 nuclear warheads by around 2030, and may accelerate that program. India and Pakistan may feel emboldened. North Korea will take this opportunity to show “parity.” Within years, the world could witness a series of underground explosions from East Asia to the Middle East. The psychological barrier between possession and use will erode.

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From an ethical standpoint, this is not a step to be taken lightly. Theologians and strategists alike have long argued that nuclear weapons pose unique moral dilemmas.

From a political perspective, the cost-benefit calculation is equally stark. Resuming testing would erode US moral authority in arms control negotiations, undermine the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and alarm allies who rely on extended US deterrence. It would also deliver propaganda victories to opponents eager to portray Washington as reckless. The environmental and political costs of reopening testing sites will be large, and the scientific benefit – according to our laboratories – will be minimal.

As the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons warns, renewed testing would undermine decades of global norm-building around restraint and open the door to new proliferation.

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The best way: leadership, not imitation

Instead of igniting a new nuclear competition, the United States should seize this moment to lead the world toward restraint. Trump’s instinct to project force is understandable; Deterrence remains vital in the world of aggressors. But real power includes moral leadership.

If the president really wants to reassert American superiority, he cannot do so by detonating weapons, but by holding a military meeting. World Summit of Nuclear Armed States – The United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea – to renew or formalize a global moratorium on nuclear testing. Such a proposal could strengthen the CTBT Article XIV Conference mechanism to enhance verification and transparency.

Such a summit would achieve three things:

1. Re-establishing dialogue between powers that rarely sit at the same table, easing nuclear tensions.
2. Reaffirm deterrence without destruction, and modernize verification mechanisms and transparency procedures using modern technology.
3. Restoring moral leadership, and showing that American power is governed by conscience, not driven by fear.

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By proposing such a gathering — perhaps under the auspices of the United Nations or as a U.S.-hosted initiative at a national security site in Nevada — President Trump could turn a provocative decision into a statesmanlike opportunity. He can remind the world that American power serves peace, not genocide.

Conclusion: The test before us

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For decades, humanity has lived with weapons too powerful to use. Their silence was our safety. Breaking this silence risks inviting a new arms race and pushing civilization to the brink. The lesson of history is clear: once the nuclear threshold is crossed, even at the testing stage, it becomes easier to cross it again.

President Trump has proven that boldness can reset stagnant debates. But boldness without wisdom can also destabilize the world we seek to defend. The real test before us is not plutonium or warheads, but leadership: Will we master our power, or let our power control us again? True leadership requires the courage to combine military preparedness with moral restraint, ensuring that force serves peace, not pride.

Click here to read more from Robert Maginnis