Caught in middle, South Korea hosts rival superpowers

“No Trump!” Hundreds of demonstrators shouted louder as they approached the United States Embassy in the center of the South Korean capital, Seoul.

A line of police buses prevented them from reaching the gates, but the presence of a platform and speakers ensured that their voices rose above Gwanghwamun Square and within earshot of representatives of US President Donald Trump.

This was a small gathering by the standards of South Korea’s vibrant protest culture. She was not the only one running. A few hundred meters to the north, at the gates of Gyeongbokgung Palace, protesters held up more banners chanting a very different message.

“No China” along with a little “Chinese Communist Party”. [Chinese Communist Party] Again, the numbers – several hundred people – were not huge for South Korea.

However, this stream through central Seoul on a sunny Saturday is an indication of the diplomatic dance South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will have to perform this week when he hosts the leaders of the United States and China.

Seoul is – and has long been – a key US ally. A friendship “forged in blood,” its leaders often say, during the Korean War of 1950-53, when U.S. forces helped repel a North Korean invasion. The South still needs Washington’s protection, but it also needs China, its largest trading partner and a vital market for exports.

“This is a particularly perilous moment, as South Korea finds itself stuck between a rock and a hard place,” says Darcy Draudt Figares of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Year after year, this embodies the choice of many countries around the world that are deeply economically integrated with China, but also economically integrated with the United States. Currently, Lee Jae-myung is trying to maneuver between these two superpowers.”

So much so that his country is hosting talks between Trump and Xi Jinping on Thursday, which could result in a breakthrough in their on-and-off trade war.

Lee, 61, is an experienced politician, but he has a lot of work ahead of him.

His landslide victory in June came after six months of turmoil. His predecessor Yoon Suk-yeol’s short-lived martial law law sparked massive protests and a constitutional crisis that eventually led to his impeachment, but left the country polarized.

By the time Lee took office, Trump’s tariffs had caught allies and rivals alike by surprise. Negotiations began and in August, Lee visited the White House and turned on the charm. Seems to be working.

South Korea believed it had appeased its powerful friend. Seoul said it would invest $350 billion in the United States and buy $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas. In return, Trump agreed to reduce tariffs from 25% to 15%.

But then more than 300 South Koreans were arrested in a large-scale immigration raid at a Hyundai factory in the US state of Georgia. Almost all of them have since returned, but that has strained relations – especially since Hyundai is a major investor in the United States.

“I don’t think the relationship between the United States and Korea has necessarily been broken at this point,” 23-year-old Hye-Yun Lee said as the protest ended outside the US embassy.

“Although I think it is eroding significantly,” she added.

The White House has also increased its demands as part of the trade talks – and Trump is now pushing for cash investments in the US. Despite attempts to sign an agreement, there is no final agreement and hopes for an agreement when the two leaders meet on Wednesday are not high.

“South Korea has a lot at stake in terms of its prosperity and security with this visit, but in a funny way, the less time Donald Trump spends here could be the better for President Lee Jae-myung,” says John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center on US-China Relations.

“It doesn’t look like they’re getting close to a breakthrough on their trade deal. So if Trump comes in, and his meetings go well, and he’s out of here within 24 hours, that’s not a terrible outcome as far as South Korea is concerned.”

Clearly, there is also anger and disappointment, some of it driven by Trump’s controversial personal politics. Hence the protests, where 22-year-old college student Kim Sol-yi carried a sign depicting a cartoon of Trump vomiting money.

“When he called South Korea a ‘money machine’ it really pissed me off,” she said. “The United States seems to view and treat South Korea as its cash cow – plain and simple – demanding huge investments. Frankly, it makes me crazy and wonder if the United States views us as an equal partner.”

However, South Koreans’ views of the United States appear largely positive. Nearly nine in ten see the United States as their most important ally, according to a poll conducted earlier this year by the US-based Pew Research Center. But the reconnaissance was conducted before the raids in Georgia.

This poll was not in favor of South Korea’s other major guest this week: China, which a third of respondents considered the biggest threat to their country.

Park Da-sum, 27, who participated in the other anti-China protest, said: “I came here today out of my love for South Korea, and to protect South Korea.”

“I feel that Chinese influence is gradually overtaking the Republic of Korea,” she adds, but with a practical caveat.

“Of course, I think we should maintain a certain level of positive diplomatic relations with China. What we don’t like is the Chinese Communist Party – the Chinese Communist Party.”

Anti-China sentiment in South Korea has steadily increased since 2016 when Seoul agreed to deploy an advanced US missile defense system in the country, triggering economic retaliation from an angry Beijing. There are also historical grievances and the relationship between them has always been unstable.

But distrust has intensified on the right in a country divided by Yoon’s impeachment. Chinese interference has become a popular trope in conspiracy theories about Yoon being a victim of election fraud.

While tens of thousands called for his removal from office, his supporters, far fewer in number but vocal, opposed his impeachment – ​​and even now a fringe group of conservatives regularly calls for his return. They are also the ones rallying against China.

The phrase “Korea for Koreans” was written on banners at the weekend’s protests, along with banners calling on the government to “Stop Chinese Boats.” A cafe is facing criticism after posting online that it would refuse to serve Chinese customers.

Such instances have led to allegations of racism, but Soo-bin, 27, who was at the protests, disagreed: “We value democratic freedom and a free market economy. We want a Republic of Korea where all freedoms are protected – freedom of association, assembly, religion and expression – and that is why we stand here.”

Observers say this is a minority view, represented by a small portion of Korean voters. However, it is hard to deny that there has been an uptick in anti-China rhetoric recently after President Lee eased visa rules for Chinese tour groups.

Lee tried to curb the protests by introducing a bill banning gatherings that promote hatred or discrimination. Long known for his openness to seeking stronger ties with China, he has made clear that is what he intends to do in his position.

Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet Lee privately on Saturday during his first visit to South Korea in 11 years, although it was a short distance from Beijing.

“If President Lee gets his way on the economic side, everyone will tolerate him, except for what is ultimately a somewhat marginal position on what we might call the extreme right,” Delury says. “President Lee actually rules more towards the center, and the center in Korea wants to get along with China.”

Xi arrives on Thursday, and after his meeting with Trump, he will spend three days in the ancient capital of Jeonju with other leaders attending the APEC summit. He spends more time in South Korea than Trump, which represents a huge diplomatic opportunity as he seeks to present China as a more stable trading partner and global power.

Improving the relationship with Beijing — relations that soured under Yoon, who was seen as hard-line toward China — could help President Lee begin a conversation with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

This is also the dialogue that he and his Democratic Party have pushed for — and previous historic summits between Trump and Kim were also held with the help of a South Korean leader from the same party.

Could it happen this time? The US President said he wanted to talk, but there was no response from Pyongyang.

Kim aside, this is a big week for South Korea and me. It is difficult to ignore the American influence on the country, from music to religion, but South Korea is now a wealthy soft power giant with a voice of its own.

The streets are packed with Westerners dressed in traditional Korean hanbok clothing searching for merchandise from Netflix’s hit K-pop series Demon Hunters or standing in lines at K-beauty stores to get their hands on the hottest new face masks. The economy is starting to pick up speed again.

However Lee chooses to move between the world’s two largest economies, it is difficult to imagine how he could afford to alienate either of them.