China’s Communist Party meets for its next five-year plan

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Chinese President Xi Jinping The country’s top leaders, known as the Central Committee, will meet next week from Monday to Thursday for a planning meeting called the “Fourth Plenum.”

This gathering reminds the US government, which was about to happen longest lockdown in history, China strongly believes in planning. Beijing held a meeting to develop the strategy Twice every decade since 1950s To rally the country around specific social and economic goals.

This year, China consolidated its achievements under the “14th Five-Year Plan” despite US pressure on technology and trade.

The upcoming “15th Five-Year Plan” is of particular importance, as China has set long-term ambitions For the year 2035Zong Liang, former chief researcher at the Bank of China, said. By then, China aims to Increasing the per capita GDP To the middle class of developed countries, with “major breakthroughs” in core technologies.

But this is ahead of the immediate challenges that policymakers will discuss next week: dealing with growing technological constraints in the United States, the possibility of a 100% tariff increase, Weak domestic demand.

Rather than announcing sweeping changes, Beijing is likely to redouble its efforts “repairs” Boosting domestic demand – from reducing regional trade barriers within China to expanding access to visas, Cong said.

After the recent increase in support for high-tech industries, Beijing is likely to pledge more support for them homegrown semiconductor, artificial intelligence and Humanoid robots. Full details are not expected until the annual parliamentary meeting in March 2026, although a readout of next week’s meeting should provide an early look at the precise priorities.

“The technology part of [plan] Two things should be focused on: artificial intelligence, where the adoption rate in key areas is expected to reach 90% by 2030; “Basic scientific research, which is still somewhat far from the official target,” Tianchen Xu, chief economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note.

At a time when the United States is reducing its climate commitments, China has the next five years to fulfill its pledge to start reducing carbon emissions after 2030.

Xu said China is so far behind in achieving its goal of reducing its emissions. “We believe that achieving this goal is still possible, but it will require more coordinated efforts to reform the energy market and divest from emissions-intensive industries.”

These include China’s increasing role in global supply chains following its accession to the World Trade Organization and Beijing’s decision to crack down on the real estate sector. He now expects another major turning point, with exports falling, after that Last flexibility Despite US tariffs.

China’s ambitions in the field of electric cars have certainly shaken the global auto industry. But Beijing has also failed to achieve many goals.Made in China 2025“Goals announced in 2015.

For example, the domestically built C919 airliner continues to rely on American and European components.

Then there is the growing concern that China’s focus on manufacturing without sufficient domestic demand has forced many companies to retreat Race to the bottom. The resulting oversupply has flooded global markets with cheap goods, squeezing the industrial base in other countries and sparking threats of tariffs not only from the United States, but also from the United States. Mexico and European Union.

Beijing’s position is that countries should not blame China, but should instead share technology by leveraging each country’s strengths.

Some countries, including Russia and other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that met in Tianjin last month, have shown interest in adopting Chinese technology, which is often cheaper than American or European alternatives. For example, DeepSeek undercut OpenAI on the costs and accessibility of running AI.

But other countries may view China’s rise as a threat. Washington has tightened export controls and expanded tariffs as Beijing continues to challenge US dominance in key industries. At the same time, China’s economic expansion continues to threaten Washington’s dominance as the world’s largest economy.

Hence, the dilemma in China’s goals is that Beijing has emphasized the need to find a balance between national security and development. The country is also keen to prioritize self-preservation and internal stability.

Next week, China’s leaders will indicate how they expect this contradictory mix of ideals to materialize – before seeing whether Xi Jinping meets Trump in South Korea later this month.

Chinese stock markets rose on Wednesday after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered a few It indicates that further interest rate cuts are in the cards.

The Hang Seng Index rose 1.94%, while the CSI 300 added 1.47%. Both indicators added 29% and about 17%, respectively. Chinese 10-year government bond yields lost about one basis point to 1.757%.

October 17 – 19: GT World Challenge held in Asia Racing series in Beijing to First time China seeks to build up locally hosted sporting events

October 20: China will release third-quarter GDP, retail sales and other economic data for September

October 20-23: China holds the “fourth plenary session” to discuss development goals for the next five years