Five things at stake in Trump and Putin’s high-level talks

Trump’s central goal on Friday is to put pressure on Putin in the ceasefire, but what is the form that this might take, what promises that can be made and what may be “red lines” should be crossed – especially regional concessions and security guarantees – to reach a deal that will be a key.

“The end of the Russian and volcanic war and volcanic war of President Trump in foreign policy, and Marsa’s talks on Friday with Putin have raised major diplomatic expectations,” said Hemia Kroft, head of the Global Commodity Strategy and Middle East and North Africa Research at RBC Capital Markets, on Wednesday.

She said that discussion points of the alleged deal are very similar to what was previously floated; In exchange for stopping its military attack, Russia appears to be seeking to maintain the crime of Crimea and the entire East Donbas region in Ukraine, as well as securing a final end of NATO’s aspirations in Kiev “in e -mail comments.

Ukraine and Europe strongly pushed against the “maximum” regional concessions that Russia could seek in exchange for a ceasefire.

Trump sewed confusion and anxiety by fluctuating on the thorny issue last week, talking about a possible “land replacement” by Ukraine, with a pledge to also restore the largest possible land.

On Wednesday, Ukraine and European leaders urged Trump not to agree to any demands from Putin regarding peace to the Earth, following the emergency virtual summit.

For his part, President Folodimir Zelinski said that the regional safety of Ukraine is dedicated to its constitution. Any changes should be approved by the referendum, which the Ukrainian parliament should be, which makes the process limited.

Another option: that Ukraine accepts realistic Russian control over the four regions it occupies on a large scale, rather than recognizing communication (legal and official). But again, how can then be preserved “fair and permanent” peace in Ukraine, which it would shine, is likely to be a competition.

Regional leaders say that the fate of regional integrity in Ukraine not only affects Ukraine, but the rest of Europe. They argue that Putin’s giving a segment of the land of its neighbor effectively redraws the borders of Europe.

Ukraine is looking forward to the European Union membership (such as the sale of NATO, although this is seen as a very distant ambition), as Kyiv and the European Union argue that if Russia gives a segment of Ukrainian lands, it will re -assemble its forces and use the region as a future launch force for shows in Omrif. This may mean that Europe has a war on its borders.

European Union leaders want to participate in any ceasefire deal and offered to supervise the preservation of peace. Russia rejected this idea, and Euroskeptic Trump may not have the region’s concerns at the forefront of his mind on Friday.

“What the Europeans are trying to put as prior conditions that are not negotiable for a deal with Russia (the ceasefire, a monitoring task,” IronClad “security guarantees) may be attached to them after the United States Summit,” said Carsten Nikkal, deputy director of research at TENEO, in a note on Wednesday.

“Regardless of the result, Trump can dare provide more required military capabilities and financing after that. This would create difficult differentials in the Atlantic relationships,” he said.

Three and a half years after the war, there is definitely a desire that the fighting in Ukraine ends. Hundreds of thousands of lives were lost, according to estimates, while millions of Ukrainians were displaced. The global economy and supply chains were also raised and re -drawn as a result of the conflict.

Meanwhile, Russia has effectively circumventing international sanctions and has buyers of oil that funds its war machine, with the refusal of China and India to isolate their ally. As such, one of the main questions will be on Friday, Putin is ready to play the ball when it comes to ending the war, and to what extent does it need?

“From Putin’s point of view, the task is that the task is: simply sitting and waiting for the desired result. Putin considers himself a” long force “and a historical figure, unlike” short power “of Western transit political figures,” Alexander Bonov, his oldest colleague at the Carnegie Russia Center, commented on Thursday.

Bonov concluded that Putin’s position on the eve of the meeting seems more important: “By giving up an individual meeting with Putin before the ceasefire, Trump risks greater than Putin.”

“In diplomacy, the aggressor does not lose.