After a blown deadline, what next for US-Canada trade?

The deadline that it imposed on a new commercial deal in the United States and Canada came on Friday. So what happens after that for these deep clinging neighbors?

Canada and the United States have been imprisoned in a six -month introductory war, and despite talking about “intense” negotiations in recent weeks, it is still a long -standing trade agreement.

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney poured cold water on the idea that he would reach a quick and free tariff deal. Trump’s open criticism of Canada’s move to recognize an intermittent Palestinian state hoped for an agreement at the last minute earlier this week.

Pessimism represents a shift in the tone since the G7 meeting in June, when the two leaders set themselves on the summer deadline.

Vin Hampson, a professor of international affairs at the University of Carlton at Ottawa, said that Canadian negotiators reached a conclusion that “it is not the end of the world” if a quick deal is not reached, “that quality is at speed and a very excited agreement.”

Carney – who was tight about the details of negotiation – said the same extent, with the repetition that “any deal” only would not do.

However, there are pressure on both sides to give companies a return.

Conservative leader Pierre Puyviri said on Friday that he is participating in the “disappointment of the Canadians” that no agreement had been reached on the deadline. Liberal Carney urged to do more to “restore control of our economic future.”

Canada is now facing a 35 % tariff rate, although there are points for compatible goods under a current free trade deal. American global definitions are identified on steel, aluminum, cars and car parts, because the United States is a better market for these sectors.

The Trump administration has justified these definitions by claiming not to cooperate on organizing the flow of illegal drugs such as Fntanil. Canada denies this, noting that about 1 % of the imports of fentanel in Canada. It has also brought new border protection and “Ventanil Caesar” in recent months in an attempt to address Trump’s concerns.

Copper and expected definitions The end of the exemption of the global tariff used by shoppers from goods less than $ 800 It can also pump.

Canada has She responded with $ 60 billion (43.3 billion dollars; 32.3 billion pounds) in counter -tariffs on various American goods – The only country along with China For revenge directly against Trump.

“It is not surprising that companies will yearn for the certainty after months and months of tumultuous ads,” said Catherine Fortin Payfler, Vice President of International Policy and World Partnership in the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

“But at the same time, they do not yearn for certainty at the expense of a really bad deal.”

Some factors give Canada some breathing room.

On paper, it seems that the country is facing a severe tariff from the United States, but the trade is currently more free than the fees indicate at first glance.

In March, Trump announced a tariff for goods compatible with the United States Agreement – to continue, known in Canada as CUSMA and the United States as USMCA.

This deal – which was negotiated during the first period of Trump in his post – entered into force five years ago.

Nearly 90 % of Canadian exports to the United States are ultimately able to cross the fees free of fees, if companies offer the necessary papers, according to this agreement.

Professor Hampson said: “This temporary warehouse has given us, there is no doubt that other countries do not possess them now.”

This means that Canada generally pays a much lower tariff rate than many deals that have already signed with the United States, such as the European Union, South Korea and Japan by 15 %, or Indonesia and the Philippines by 19 %.

Ottawa also brought some relief programs for the affected industries, and has also raised about $ 1.5 billion of import duties more than it was in the same period last year, due to counter -tariffs.

While the confidence of the consumer in the United States increases and the prices remain there, it helps in the negotiation situation in Canada if they can wait for Americans to start feeling the pain of definitions.

“It is the Americans who will struggle,” said Professor Hampson.

Mrs. Fortin Levavre predicts American companies, especially the smaller companies that do not have the same resources to bear, to pressure political leaders.

“Therefore, this pressure can be played in our favor,” she said.

The Canadians seem ready to give the new prime minister some space. Opinion polls indicate that they are generally satisfied with his dealings with trade.

“He realizes that doing what is better for the economy at the present time is the best for him politically.”

Trump said he imposes a tariff to enhance local manufacturing, open foreign markets and collect funds for the government.

It also uses them to push countries like Canada on a set of abnormal issues, including military spending.

In the past few weeks, Ottawa has greatly increased its defensive spending, strengthening security on the common borders and killing a digital tax opposed by American technology companies.

Mrs. Fortin-Lefaivre said that these moves show that Canada “do what the Americans wanted to do.”

It hopes that Canadian negotiators will be pushing for the definitions as low as possible, as well as work to ensure the ability of deep integrated supply chains to continue working together.

Canada presses relief on a 50 % steel tariff They hunt American auto manufacturers.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin indicated in an interview with CNBC, a choice on the table.

Meanwhile, Trump raised a number of long commercial irritants alongside fentanel, including the protection of Canada around the dairy industry.

Ottawa has already warned of more counter -measures in the event of the collapse of the talks, although political appetite may be diminished.

David Eibi, British Columbia President of Colombia, told Bloomberg that the revenge definitions “had no kind of effect that we hope.”

Upon revenge, Professor Hampson said: “The Americans have the dominance of escalation here. So you want to be smart in that.”

A Carney spokesman refused to determine whether more counter -measures are still on the table. Meanwhile, the Canadian negotiators in Washington were most of this week and continued to push the talks forward, with the minister responsible for Canada-the United States. Trade saying on Friday An acceptable agreement “was not on the horizon yet.”

“We all make sure that there is a deal,” said Ms. Fortin Levavir.

But the research conducted by its business group indicates that companies are planning to reach emergency. Nearly 40 % of the goods are already have diversified suppliers outside the United States, and 28 % have various buyers.

They are also looking forward to what might be more challenging conversations with CUSMA, which have proven to be critical behind, as is the case for review next year.

All of this is part of a wider batch by the country to diversify trade away from the United States, withdraw the barriers that hindered trade between provinces, and pressure more quickly on major projects.

The economic ties between the two countries – Canada will remain one of the largest commercial partners and economic and security allies in the United States.

But the paradox is that Trump’s threats may be “forcing Canada to understand that we must obtain our economic house in the system,” Mrs. Hall Vendley said.

“It will really make some difficult decisions. I think our current government gets this.”