Chinese trade to U.S. could drop by $485 billion: Tariff simulator

Exports from China to the United States can decrease by nearly half a trillion dollars ($ 485 billion) from now and 2027, according to the tariff simulation that predicts shifts in global trade.

Trade talks between the United States and China It resumed on Monday In Stockholm.

Looking at the dominant position in China in trade with the United States, this decrease will be greater than the total decline in global exports to the United States when all countries are taken in the model.

Expectations depend on the latest definitions that were implemented between the United States and China, and how world trade can be reshaped in response. Currently, the United States is charging 51 % of the tariffs on Chinese goods, while American exports to China face 32.6 % of customs tariffs. The United States has Threatened with high definitions on Chinese goods If a deal is not reached by August 12, which the tariff rates may rise to 145 %.

US government data appears The total level of Chinese imports is $ 438.9 billion In 2024.

After recent deals with Japan and the European Union, the customs tariff rates were set by 15 %, President Trump indicated on Monday that The basic global tariff rate It is likely that it comes between 15 % -20 %.

“Countries will have a natural tendency to re -connect their commercial relations away from the United States in many of these scenarios,” said Cesar Hidalgo, Professor of Economics at Toulouse College of Economics. And the founder of Datawheel, who built the OEC tariff simulation.

The countries related to the Chinese industrial economy will also witness our weakness in export. Vietnam, a country that benefited from the Chinese supply chain strategy “in addition to” that enabled manufacturers to avoid some customs tariffs of Chinese goods, can see exports to the United States’ decline by $ 102 billion by 2027.

It is also expected that you will expect a 49 billion dollars to test a decrease in exports to the United States.

The goods that represent large parts of these declines include broadcast equipment (-59.2 billion dollars) and computers (-58.7 billion dollars) from China, and cars from South Korea (-13.5 billion dollars), according to the analysis.

At the same time, even as the United States threatens an additional tariff for North American trade partners and has it until now He failed to secure a deal with CanadaThe United States will import more than Canada (+128 billion dollars) and Mexico (+77 billion dollars), as well as from the United Kingdom (+23 billion dollars), which recently A commercial deal with the United States signed

While the current level of Chinese definitions The official European Union tariff in the commercial deal It was announced on Sunday, which will lead to an increase in the export of the United States by 12 % in 2027, and the decrease in Chinese goods coming to the United States began.

Currently, the ocean shipping data tracks a decrease in Chinese exports that enter the United States during the trade war. When the customs tariff decreased from 145 % to 51 % in June during a continuous commercial war stand, some retailers and manufacturers pulled the shipping forward, which arrived in early July, but that The high volume of containers in the Los Angeles port was short -termAccording to modern data.

According to the weekly ships report issued by Captain C. KIP (KIP), the CEO of Southern California Traffic Service and ships, a height of 66.8 ships per day reflected the first half of July during the second half of the month. Ships fell to 58.7 a day in the past weekly period, with two days before last week when the ship’s visits fell to 55.

“This is a strong pioneering indicator to retreat in the aromatic container ships the following week to two weeks,” Lotette wrote.

Retamentation groups have repeatedly warned that the tariff threats course is only delayed He adds to uncertaintyAnd hesitated to move forward with requests.

China will also retract its acceptance of US exports, with a decrease of 101 billion dollars to 2027, according to TRFF simulation, with the largest export losers in the United States including soybeans (-10 billion dollars), oil circles (-$ 5.36), and Cars (-$ 5.36 billion).

During the last trade war with the United States, China is participating in the trade expansion talks with Southeast Asian countries), among other things. The tariff simulation projects in Russia, which won the lion’s share of increasing trade with China, is $ 69.8 billion. Among the other countries that China will expand its trade relations with Vietnam (34.4 billion dollars), Saudi Arabia ($ 28 billion), South Korea ($ 27.9 billion), Australia ($ 24.6 billion) and Japan (21.4 billion dollars).

IKEA, Walmart Usina Trade Impact

According to shipping bills, which are container receipts that separate the company’s import and export information and the country of the origin of the products, IKEA imports most shipments from China to the United States (14.6 %), followed Wal Mart (8.6 %), Costeco (5.8 %), emerging fruit (5.52 %) and Amazon (3.83 %).

Furniture is the first ranking element IKEA (18.2 %). Light synthetic cotton fabrics are the highest imported by Walmart (64 %).

Among the American states, Texas and California will carry a decline in trade with China. Texas is the first country in the United States for exports to China, with a rate of 954 million dollars, led by electrical machines and electronics ($ 222 million), mineral fuel, mineral oils and distilled products ($ 204 million), machinery, mechanical devices and parts (201 million dollars).

California is ranked second among the states, with photography equipment, movies, photography and medical tools as the best exports in the state to China, at a price of $ 179 million. Electrical and electronics machines (125 million dollars), machinery, mechanical appliances and spare parts (93 million dollars) are the most important exports from California to China. Oregon is the third rank among the states, with $ 458 million from its exports to China, led by electronic machines and electronics ($ 397 million).

Former Trade Secretary Carlos Guterres on CNBC said that the current commercial turmoil will be just an edge in the history of global trade, but warned that “protectionism does not protect. It lands from a nation of its vitality.”